Empyrean Protocol

Empyrean Intelligence Console

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I. Executive Summary

  • Iranian Protests Escalate: The ongoing protests in Iran have resulted in a death toll of at least 646, with widespread unrest fueled by economic grievances and government repression. The Iranian government faces increasing pressure to address public discontent, or risk further escalation of protests. This situation poses a significant risk of destabilization in the region and may provoke a more aggressive U.S. response.
  • U.S. Sanctions on Iran: President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all countries conducting business with Iran, a move aimed at isolating Tehran economically. This policy shift could lead to a broader trade war, impacting global supply chains and increasing tensions with U.S. allies who may be affected by these tariffs.
  • EU Sanctions Response: The European Union is poised to implement additional sanctions against Iranian officials responsible for the crackdown on protests. This swift action reflects a unified stance among EU member states in condemning human rights violations, potentially complicating diplomatic relations with Iran and affecting European businesses operating in the region.
  • Russia's Military Actions: The U.S. has condemned Russia for a "dangerous and inexplicable escalation" in Ukraine, particularly following the deployment of nuclear-capable missiles. This escalation not only heightens the risk of military confrontation but also complicates the sanctions landscape, as Russia may seek to bolster its economy through alternative trade partnerships, particularly with China and India.
  • Shifts in Russian Oil Exports: Recent data indicates a significant pivot in Russia's oil export strategy, with a 23% increase in shipments to China and a 29% decrease to India. This shift underscores the evolving geopolitical alliances and the impact of sanctions, as Russia adapts to its new economic realities by deepening ties with Asian markets.
  • North Korea's Sanctions Evasion: The U.S. has highlighted North Korea's continued violations of UN sanctions through cyber activities and the use of overseas workers. This ongoing evasion strategy poses a challenge for sanctions enforcement and underscores the need for enhanced international cooperation to monitor and counteract North Korea's illicit activities.
  • Global Reactions to Iranian Unrest: The international community remains divided on the Iranian protests, with Western nations generally supporting the demonstrators while others, including Russia and China, express skepticism about foreign interference. This division complicates the potential for a coordinated international response and may embolden Iran's government to continue its crackdown.
  • Potential for Military Conflict: The rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran has intensified, with both sides preparing for possible military confrontations. Iranian officials have indicated readiness for conflict, while the U.S. administration weighs its options, including potential military action. This precarious situation heightens the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation.
  • Economic Implications of Sanctions: The cumulative effect of sanctions on Iran, coupled with internal economic mismanagement, has led to a significant deterioration of the Iranian economy. Analysts suggest that without substantial external support, recovery is unlikely, which could further fuel domestic unrest and complicate the sanctions landscape.
  • Monitoring Sanctions Compliance: The U.S. and allied nations must enhance their monitoring of sanctions compliance, particularly in light of North Korea's evasive tactics and Russia's shifting trade patterns. Strengthening intelligence-sharing and enforcement mechanisms will be crucial in maintaining the effectiveness of sanctions regimes.
  • Strategic Considerations for Sanctions Enforcement: As geopolitical dynamics evolve, sanctions enforcement strategies must adapt to address the complexities of international trade and diplomatic relations. Engaging with allies to present a unified front against sanctions evasion will be essential in mitigating risks and ensuring compliance across multiple jurisdictions.

II. Quantitative Facts

  • Iran Protests: As of January 13, 2026, the death toll from protests in Iran has reached 646 over 16 days of unrest.
  • Oil Exports: In December 2025, Russian crude oil exports to China increased by 23% compared to the previous month, while exports to India decreased by 29%.
  • US Tariff Announcement: On January 12, 2026, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all U.S. trade with countries conducting business with Iran.
  • Casualties in Ukraine: On January 13, 2026, two individuals were reported killed and three injured due to Russian attacks in Kharkiv, Ukraine.
  • Duration of Ukraine Conflict: The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for nearly four years as of January 2026.
  • Iranian Protests Timeline: Protests began in late December 2025, with significant escalation noted in early January 2026.

III. Names, Entities, and Operational Facts

  • Donald Trump: President of the United States; announced a 25% tariff on countries conducting business with Iran.
  • Iranian Parliament: Legislative body of Iran; an MP warned of increased unrest if government grievances are not addressed.
  • Abbas Araghchi: Iranian Foreign Minister; stated the government is prepared for conflict amid rising tensions with the U.S.
  • Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA): U.S.-based organization; reported the death toll of 646 during recent protests in Iran.
  • European Union (EU): Political and economic union; plans to propose further sanctions against Iran for repression of protests.
  • Oleh Synehoubov: Regional Governor of Kharkiv, Ukraine; reported casualties from Russian attacks in the region.
  • U.S. Department of State: U.S. government department; involved in briefing UN member states on sanctions monitoring regarding North Korea.
  • Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT): Group focused on monitoring sanctions violations; recently reported on North Korea's evasion tactics.
  • Jonathan Fritz: U.S. Department of State Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; briefed on the MSMT report.
  • Iranian Intelligence Agency: Iranian government body; claimed to have seized U.S. arms and explosives from militants.
  • Russian Federation: State involved in military actions in Ukraine; accused by the U.S. of escalating conflict with dangerous tactics.
  • China: Country increasing oil imports from Russia; noted as a key player in shifting trade patterns under sanctions.
  • India: Country reducing oil imports from Russia; reflects changing dynamics in international energy trade due to sanctions.
  • U.S. Military: Armed forces of the United States; involved in discussions regarding potential military action in response to Iran's protests.
  • Lindsey Graham: U.S. Senator; mentioned in context of proposed sanctions legislation related to Iran.
  • HRANA: Human Rights Activists News Agency; provided data on casualties during protests in Iran.
  • European Commission: Executive branch of the EU; led by Ursula von der Leyen, who announced plans for swift sanctions against Iran.

Sanctions Daily Brief

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Sanctions · 2026-01-14 APIDATA_sanctions_Jan-14-2026.txt

- Iranian MP warns of greater unrest, urging government to address grievances — Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-01-13T09:51:42Z DUBAI, Jan 13 - An Iranian parliamentarian said on Tuesday the government will face even bigger protests unless it addresses people's grievances, after more ... https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iranian-mp-warns-greater-unrest-094734513.html

- US accuses Russia of 'dangerous and inexplicable escalation' of war in Ukraine as Trump seeks peace — Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-01-13T00:16:21Z The United States accused Russia on Monday of a “dangerous and inexplicable escalation” of its nearly four-year war in Ukraine at a time when the Trump... https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-accuses-russia-dangerous-inexplicable-001621207.html

- Iran since 1979: A timeline of crises — Al Jazeera English · 2026-01-13T07:06:56Z From a hostage crisis, a years-long war, and a nuclear dispute, Iran's struggles remain pivotal to its identity. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/a-timeline-of-crises-faced-by-iran-since-1979

- Donald Trump menace les partenaires de Téhéran de sanctions douanières — Courrier International · 2026-01-13T04:59:56Z Le président américain a annoncé l’imposition de droits de douane de 25 % sur tous les pays qui font des affaires avec la République islamique, avec effet immédiat. https://www.courrierinternational.com/article/iran-donald-trump-menace-les-partenaires-de-teheran-de-sanctions-douanieres_239273

- Iran protests: 646 killed, activists say, as Trump weighs military action — ABC News · 2026-01-13T11:04:08Z The death toll over 16 days of mass anti-government protests in Iran reached 646 as of Monday, according to data published by the the U.S.-based HRANA. https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-protests-646-killed-activists-trump-weighs-military/story?id=129156635

- Russia’s Oil Flows Pivot East as China Buys More and India Pulls Back — Yahoo Entertainment · 2026-01-13T09:30:00Z Russia’s December oil exports surged on higher shipments to China while deliveries to India fell sharply, reflecting shifting trade patterns under sanctions ... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-oil-flows-pivot-east-093000762.html

- EU to ‘swiftly’ propose further sanctions on Iran, von der Leyen says — Internazionale.it · 2026-01-13T11:17:28Z BRUSSELS, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The EU will “swiftly” propose further sanctions on those responsible for the repression of demonstrations in Iran, European Commission Presid… Leggi https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/01/13/eu-to-swiftly-propose-further-sanctions-on-iran-von-der-leyen-says

- Everything We Know About the Protests in Iran Amid the Ongoing Internet Blackout — Jezebel · 2026-01-13T08:44:17Z Hundreds of protesters have been killed; Trump is threatening military action; and at least one Iranian official has brushed off his government’s crackdown by pointing to ICE in the U.S. https://www.jezebel.com/everything-we-know-about-the-protests-in-iran-amid-the-ongoing-internet-blackout

- EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : à Kharkiv, deux morts dans une attaque russe — Le Monde · 2026-01-13T05:02:15Z Le gouverneur régional, Oleh Synehoubov, a également fait état de deux blessés dans ces frappes qui se sont déroulées dans la nuit de lundi à mardi. Un sanatorium pour enfants du district Chevtchenkivsky a par ailleurs été visé, selon le maire de Kharkiv, Ilh… https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/01/13/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-a-kharkiv-deux-morts-dans-une-attaque-russe66613553210.html

- Trump announces 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all U.S. trade with any country that continues doing business with Iran, calling the order “final and conclusive.” The U.S. has minimal direct commerce with Iran due to longstanding nuclear-related sanctions, i… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-trump-announces-tariffs-countries-business-with-iran.html

- Iran’s protests fuelled by an ailing economy the regime cannot fix: Analysts — CNA · 2026-01-13T07:06:56Z Years of Western sanctions over Tehran's nuclear programme, coupled with corruption and financial mismanagement by the state, have hollowed out Iran’s economy. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/iran-protest-crackdown-economy-analysts-5855236

- US slams Russia’s ‘dangerous escalation’ in Ukraine amid new deadly strikes — Al Jazeera English · 2026-01-13T04:18:34Z The Trump administration denounces Russia's use of a nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in a UN Security Council meeting. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/us-slams-russias-dangerous-escalation-in-ukraine-amid-new-deadly-strikes

- Iran, US at possible precipice of renewed conflict as protests continue — Al Jazeera English · 2026-01-13T09:45:58Z Amid rising tensions, Iran’s intelligence agency says it has seized US arms and explosive equipment from 'militants'. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/iran-us-at-possible-precipice-of-renewed-conflict-as-protests-continue

- World reacts to Iran protests, US military threats against Tehran — Al Jazeera English · 2026-01-13T10:21:45Z Global leaders have been divided on the protests, with the US and its allies backing the protesters. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/world-reacts-to-iran-protests-us-military-threats-against-tehran

- Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,419 — Al Jazeera English · 2026-01-13T01:48:32Z These are the key developments from day 1,419 of Russia’s war on Ukraine. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-1419

- Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team Report on DPRK Violations and Evasions of UN Sanctions through Cyber and Information Technology Worker Activities — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z Today at the United Nations, U.S. Department of State Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Jonathan Fritz briefed UN Member States and members of the press on the second Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT) report https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2026/dprk-260112-state01.htm

- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea's Violations and Evasions of UN Sanctions through Cyber and IT Worker Activities — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z Today at the United Nations, the United States joined other members of the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT) to highlight their recent report. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2026/dprk-260112-state02.htm

- Senator Mark Kelly sues US Defense Department for ‘punitive retribution’ — Al Jazeera English · 2026-01-13T02:59:31Z The Trump administration has sought to censure Kelly for a video encouraging the military to reject 'illegal orders'. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/13/senator-mark-kelly-sues-us-defense-department-for-punitive-retribution

- Trump Orders 25% Tariff on Any Country Doing Business with Iran — Sputnikglobe.com · 2026-01-13T03:32:00Z US President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country engaged in business with Iran will pay a 25% tariff on any business done with the United States. https://sputnikglobe.com/20260113/trump-orders-25-tariff-on-any-country-doing-business-with-iran-1123455302.html

- En Iran, le régime s’en prend au service de connexion par satellite Starlink pour empêcher les habitants de communiquer — Le Monde · 2026-01-13T09:15:30Z Depuis le 8 janvier, Internet est coupé dans le pays, alors que la population est lourdement réprimée. Pour contourner la censure, des Iraniens utilisent la technologie d’Elon Musk, dont une loi votée au Parlement a interdit l’utilisation. Mais Téhéran semble… https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/01/13/en-iran-le-regime-s-en-prend-au-service-de-connexion-par-satellite-starlink-pour-empecher-les-habitants-de-communiquer66617973210.html

- As The EU Eases Sanctions On Pristina, What's Next For Kosovo? — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z The European Union says it will start lifting sanctions this month first imposed on Kosovo in summer 2023, when Pristina implemented the results of controversial elections in the Serb-dominated north despite warnings from Brussels. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2026/01/mil-260112-rferl01.htm

- Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting, says help on way — RTE · 2026-01-13T03:45:34Z US President Donald Trump has urged Iranians to ⁠keep protesting and said help was on the way, without giving details, as Iran's clerical establishment pressed its crackdown against the biggest demonstrations in years. https://www.rte.ie/news/middle-east/2026/0113/1552787-iran-protests/

- Le Venezuela affirme vouloir relancer le dialogue avec l’Union européenne — Le Monde · 2026-01-13T03:17:55Z Après des années de tensions, Caracas s’est dit, lundi, prêt à un « nouvel agenda » avec l’Europe après une réunion « franche » entre des diplomates des deux parties. https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/01/13/le-venezuela-affirme-vouloir-relancer-le-dialogue-avec-l-union-europeenne66617493210.html

- Trump Effect: Supertankers Sailing to Pick up Venezuelan Oil for China Turning Back — Breitbart News · 2026-01-13T09:39:24Z Two Chinese oil supertankers on their way to pick up Venezuelan oil made U-turns and headed back to Asia, reports indicate. The post Trump Effect: Supertankers Sailing to Pick up Venezuelan Oil for China Turning Back appeared first on Breitbart. https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2026/01/13/trump-effect-supertankers-sailing-to-pick-up-venezuelan-oil-for-china-turning-back/

- Slovak PM Fico calls for EU foreign policy overhaul, accuses Brussels of “hating Russia” — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico demands the replacement of EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, accusing Brussels of being consumed by anti-Russian hostility instead of pursuing diplomacy. The Slovak PM criticizes EU foreign policy as lacking strategic visio… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-fico-calls-for-eu-foreign-policy-overhaul.html

- Trump announces 25% tariffs on Iran trading partners — RTE · 2026-01-13T03:45:34Z US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people. https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2026/0113/1552787-iran-protests/

- Chinese FM spokesperson responds to US president's new threats against Cuba — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z When asked about US president's new threats against the Cuban people and government, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated at Monday's press briefing that China firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security and opp… https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/cuba/cuba-260112-globaltimes01.htm

- EU Parliament bans Iranian diplomats from premises — RT · 2026-01-13T04:05:31Z The European Parliament has banned all representatives of Iran from entering its buildings, President Roberta Metsola has announced Read Full Article at RT.com https://www.rt.com/news/630877-eu-parliament-bans-iranian-diplomats/

- Manifestations en Iran : Donald Trump menace les partenaires de Téhéran de sanctions économiques alors que la répression s'accentue — Franceinfo.fr · 2026-01-13T06:03:32Z Le bilan de la répression des manifestations contre le pouvoir dépasse les 600 morts, selon une ONG. https://www.franceinfo.fr/monde/iran/manifestations/direct-manifestations-en-iran-donald-trump-menace-les-partenaires-de-teheran-de-sanctions-economiques-alors-que-la-repression-s-accentue_7738273.html

- North Korean hackers weaponize QR codes in sophisticated espionage campaign — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z The FBI warns that North Korea’s Kimsuky hacking group is using QR code phishing (“quishing”) to steal sensitive information from U.S. think tanks, universities and government agencies. Hackers embed malicious QR codes in emails, which bypass traditional link… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-north-korean-hackers-weaponize-qr-codes-espionage.html

- Russia launches largest drone attack in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on air bases — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z Russia launched its largest drone attack yet, firing 430 drones and 18 missiles in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases. Ukrainian defenses intercepted most, but falling debris caused civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Russia con… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-russia-launches-largest-drone-attack-retaliation-ukraine.html

- EU Parliament bans Iranian diplomats over crackdown on protesters — Israelnationalnews.com · 2026-01-13T03:48:22Z EU Parliament bans Iranian diplomats over Tehran’s crackdown on anti-regime protesters, with President Metsola urging stronger action. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/420817

- Donald Trump menace d'imposer des droits de douane de 25% aux pays qui commercent avec l'Iran — Franceinfo.fr · 2026-01-13T07:07:22Z Le président américain a annoncé lundi qu'il allait taxer à hauteur de 25% tout pays commerçant avec l'Iran. Une menace qui vise en premier lieu la Chine, son principal partenaire commercial. L'Iran se retrouve de plus en plus isolé. https://www.franceinfo.fr/replay-radio/d-un-monde-a-l-autre/iran-donald-trump-menace-d-imposer-des-droits-de-douane-aux-partenaires-de-teheran_7710367.html

- Analysis-Why Iran’s clerical regime still holds as protests rage — Internazionale.it · 2026-01-13T10:34:16Z By Samia NakhoulDUBAI, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Despite Iran’s nationwide protests and years of external pressure, there are as yet no signs of fracture in the Islamic Republic… Leggi https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/01/13/analysis-why-iran-s-clerical-regime-still-holds-as-protests-rage

- 'China opposes use or threat of force': FM responds to US claims of considerations of sanctions, cyber actions and potential military strikes against Iran — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z China has consistently opposed interference in other countries' internal affairs, upheld that the sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected, and opposed the use or threat of force in international relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry … https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260112-globaltimes03.htm

- Military Intervention Will Not Liberate the Iranian People — The New Republic · 2026-01-13T11:00:00Z Iran is once again at the center of a familiar and dangerous dynamic: mass protests met with lethal state repression at home, and escalating threats of U.S. military action from abroad. As security forces crack down on demonstrators across major cities, Presi… https://newrepublic.com/article/205176/iran-crackdown-force-us-military

- Trump's Iran tariff hike 'will not change' anything as country 'ready for war': analysis — Raw Story · 2026-01-13T09:21:00Z An economist has suggested the sudden tariff hike Donald Trump has set on Iran and its trading partners "will not change" anything. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the US administration they are ready for war should Trump wish to "test" the len… https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-2674877593/

- Venezuela Cites 'Brotherhood and Solidarity' With Cuba After Trump Signals End to Oil Support — International Business Times · 2026-01-13T00:11:08Z Venezuela's interim leadership publicly reaffirmed its relationship with Cuba after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington had ended the flow of Venezuelan oil and financial support to the island. https://www.ibtimes.com/venezuela-cites-brotherhood-solidarity-cuba-after-trump-signals-end-oil-support-3795100

- Enterprise security faces a three-front war: cybercrime, AI misuse, and supply chains — Help Net Security · 2026-01-13T08:45:21Z Security teams are dealing with pressures tied to AI use, geopolitical instability, and expanding cybercrime that reach beyond technical controls, according to findings from the World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026. AI drives risk growth a… https://www.helpnetsecurity.com/2026/01/13/wef-global-cybersecurity-outlook-2026/

- U.S. tells its citizens to leave Iran, as Trump pressures Tehran over protest crackdown — CBC News · 2026-01-13T01:44:20Z The United States is telling its citizens to leave Iran, as Washington maintains its pressure on Tehran to cease its crackdown on protesters and U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to strike the Iranian government over the issue https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-protests-us-pressure-monday-9.7042908

- Traders court Indian, Chinese buyers for Venezuelan crude — The Punch · 2026-01-13T02:08:07Z Global traders Vitol and Trafigura begin talks with Indian and Chinese refiners to resume the sale of Venezuelan crude oil, with deliveries set for March.

Read More: https://punchng.com/traders-court-indian-chinese-buyers-for-venezuelan-crude/ https://punchng.com/traders-court-indian-chinese-buyers-for-venezuelan-crude/

- U.S. Army documents reveal $2 billion plan to build Israeli tank plant amid Gaza war — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z The U.S. plans to fund a new Israeli armored vehicle plant with up to $2 billion, according to reports. This project aims to boost production of tanks used in the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts. The funding is separate from and in addition to annual U.S. military… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-documents-plan-build-israeli-tank-plant-gaza.html

- Iran Says Ready To Talk As Trump Says US Looking At 'Very Strong Options' Against Tehran — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z Iran says it's prepared for both talks or war with the United States after President Donald Trump said he is considering "very strong options" against Tehran amid reports of hundreds, and possibly thousands, of deaths in a reportedly brutal crackdown on antig… https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260112-rferl03.htm

- Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna's comment on the situation in Iran — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z No description https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260112-estonia-mfa01.htm

- Fitburg Vessel to move to international waters under Border Guard's control — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z The criminal investigative measures concerning the damage to the telecommunications cable have reached a stage where the authorities have been able to lift the seizure. https://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/news/2026/intell-260112-finpol01.htm

- Oil prices gain on Iran supply disruption concerns — CNA · 2026-01-13T01:55:28Z Jan 13 : Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, as heightened concerns surrounding Iran and potential supply disruptions outweighed the prospect of increased crude supply from Venezuela.Brent futures gained 28 cents, or 0.4 per cent to $64.15 a barrel by 0101 GM… https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/oil-prices-gain-iran-supply-disruption-concerns-5854626

- Iran’s regime is finished, says Merz — POLITICO.eu · 2026-01-13T08:40:27Z "I assume that we are now witnessing the final days and weeks of this regime,” German chancellor says as Iranian protests sweep the country. https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-regime-is-finished-says-germany-friedrich-merz/

- White House says Trump prefers diplomacy over Iran, but will not rule out military options — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday diplomacy remains the preferred approach for the United States to deal with Iran, though the Trump administration will not rule out military options if necessary. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260113-pdo02.htm

- FM responds to Trump's claim that China and Russia can only purchase Venezuelan crude oil under US control — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z Latin American countries are all sovereign and independent nations with the right to independently choose their partners, Mao Ning, spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry (FM), told a press conference on Monday. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2026/01/mil-260112-globaltimes03.htm

- Iranian nation delivered crushing response to enemy plots amid nationwide rallies: Pezeshkian — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z President Masoud Pezeshkian has hailed the "magnificent and epic" presence of millions of Iranians in nationwide rallies against the recent riots, saying the massive turnout has neutralized the "sinister designs" of foreign enemies and their mercenaries. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260112-presstv03.htm

- Trump says nations doing business with Iran face 25% tariff on U.S. trade — Japan Today · 2026-01-13T05:34:56Z President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any trade with the U.S., as ‌Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years. … https://japantoday.com/category/world/trump-says-nations-doing-business-with-iran-face-25-tariff-on-us-trade2

- Fraude en ligne, IA, identités synthétiques : l'alerte rouge pour l'EdTech en 2026 — JDN · 2026-01-13T10:25:04Z En 2025, des millions d'apprenants accèdent à des cours, des évaluations, et des programmes accrédités depuis n'importe quel point du globe, témoignant d'une transformation durable l'apprentissage. https://www.journaldunet.com/intelligence-artificielle/1547187-fraude-en-ligne-ia-identites-synthetiques-l-alerte-rouge-pour-l-edtech-en-2026/

- Trump’s 25% duty on Iran-linked trade rattles exporters — The Times of India · 2026-01-13T08:53:32Z Indian exporters await clarity on US President Donald Trump's new 25% tariff on trade with Iran. This move could impact India's trade relations with Iran. Indian firms are compliant with existing sanctions, focusing on humanitarian trade. The full impact will… https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/trumps-25-duty-on-iran-linked-trade-rattles-exporters/articleshow/126501376.cms

- China opposes Trump's tariff threat against nations doing business with Iran — The Times of India · 2026-01-13T04:21:37Z China criticised the U.S. threat of a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, saying it opposes unilateral sanctions and what it called long-arm jurisdiction. Beijing said tariff and trade wars have no winners and warned it would take necessary steps to pr… https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-opposes-trumps-tariff-threat-against-nations-doing-business-with-iran/articleshow/126496702.cms

- Chinese FM spokesperson issues series of responses to the Iran situation and US threats of potential strikes — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning addressed several questions concerning developments in Iran and the escalating situation in the region marked by US threats of a potential strike if Iran uses lethal force against protesters. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260112-globaltimes02.htm

- Aggressors will face severe pain and suffering from Iran's 'surprises': Defense minister — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z Iran's defense minister says the country has prepared "surprises" to counter any threats, warning the US and Israel that any aggression would endure severe pain and suffering as a result of these unexpected responses. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260113-presstv03.htm

- Trump’s statements and Greenland strategy reports draw legal and diplomatic scrutiny — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z Trump Claims Unchecked Authority: Leaked audio reveals Trump stating he is bound only by his own morality, rejecting constitutional and international law, sparking fears of authoritarianism and a constitutional crisis. Greenland Military Plans: Trump allegedl… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-trumps-statements-greenland-strategy-draw-legal-diplomatic-scrutiny.html

- Iran protest death toll exceeds 500 amid regime blackout and drone surveillance — Naturalnews.com · 2026-01-13T06:00:00Z Iran faces its most severe internal crisis in years with protests challenging the theocratic system. Human rights groups report over 500 protesters killed amid a violent government crackdown. A near-total internet blackout has been imposed, obscuring the true… https://www.naturalnews.com/2026-01-13-iran-protest-death-toll-regime-blackout.html

- Trump threatens 25 percent tariff on ‘any country’ that trades with Iran — POLITICO.eu · 2026-01-13T04:48:48Z The threat follows reports from human rights groups that hundreds of people have been killed in a brutal crackdown on protests against the regime that intensified over the weekend. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-threatens-25-percent-tariff-iran-trade-eu/

- Florida Lawmakers Ready for Another Shot at Litigation Funding Limits — Insurance Journal · 2026-01-13T06:01:26Z Florida property-casualty insurance leaders have said they are not expecting big changes from the Legislature’s 2026 regular session that begins today, given the much-touted impact that 2022 reforms have already had on excessive litigation costs in recent yea… https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2026/01/13/853997.htm

- California’s Palestine Exception to 1st Amendment is Fought in Courts by Progressives — Juancole.com · 2026-01-13T05:15:09Z Efforts to legally declare any criticism of Israeli policy to be sanctionable anti-Semitism have reached a crisis point https://www.juancole.com/2026/01/californias-palestine-progressives.html

- US accuses Russia of ‘dangerous and inexplicable escalation’ of war in Ukraine as Trump seeks peace — Boston Herald · 2026-01-13T00:55:38Z Europe’s leaders condemned the attack using the Oreshnik as “escalatory and unacceptable.” https://www.bostonherald.com/2026/01/12/united-nations-russia-ukraine-war/

- Hungary election that could spell end of Orbán set for April 12 — POLITICO.eu · 2026-01-13T11:10:44Z The populist-nationalist PM faces his toughest battle yet to hold on to power in Budapest. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-election-that-could-spell-end-orban-set-april-12/

- Frappes symboliques, sanctions, négociations: ces options qui s'offrent à Donald Trump pour mettre l'Iran sous pression — BFMTV · 2026-01-13T09:01:26Z Le président américain a affirmé vouloir venir en aide aux manifestants iraniens descendus dans la rue contre le régime et menacé Téhéran d'une intervention militaire. "La diplomatie est toujours la première option pour le président", a cependant indiqué ce l… https://www.bfmtv.com/international/moyen-orient/iran/frappes-symboliques-sanctions-negociations-ces-options-qui-s-offrent-a-donald-trump-pour-mettre-l-iran-sous-pression_AV-202601130336.html

- Trump Again Threatens to Bomb Iran as Protest Deaths Near 600 — Common Dreams · 2026-01-13T00:30:59Z The White House on Monday ramped up threats to attack Iran while President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on countries doing business with the Islamic Republic, where the death toll from two weeks of protests against economic hardship exacerbated by US sa… https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-attack-iran-tariffs

- Réduire les sanctions Lez de 350 à 15€ à Bruxelles ? Pourquoi le "tour de force du MR" ne passera pas malgré Ahidar et le PTB — Lavenir.net · 2026-01-13T08:47:22Z Ce mercredi, le texte du MR pour réduire le montant des amendes de la Lez sera débattu au Parlement bruxellois. ... https://www.lavenir.net/regions/bruxelles/2026/01/13/reduire-les-sanctions-lez-de-350-a-15-a-bruxelles-pourquoi-le-tour-de-force-du-mr-ne-passera-pas-malgre-ahidar-et-le-ptb-MFC4JRKWAZBW7K4UBLRL3JWB7U/

- Press Statement of DPRK Permanent Mission to UN — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z The permanent mission of the DPRK to the United Nations issued the following press statement on January 12: https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2026/dprk-260112-kcna01.htm

- Faire passer les sanctions Lez de 350 à 15€ à Bruxelles ? Ahidar et le PTB soutiennent le MR, les partis de la Guinness font bloc — dh.be · 2026-01-13T08:30:00Z Ce mercredi, le texte du MR pour réduire le montant des amendes de la Lez sera débattu au Parlement bruxellois. ... https://www.dhnet.be/regions/bruxelles/2026/01/13/faire-passer-les-sanctions-lez-de-350-a-15-a-bruxelles-ahidar-et-le-ptb-soutiennent-le-mr-les-partis-de-la-guinness-font-bloc-SD64KFMYCRHHJAKH2IL2UV4RUY/

- Sen. Kelly sues Hegseth over penalties for 'illegal orders' video — Newsfromthestates.com · 2026-01-13T03:42:43Z The combat veteran's 46-page suit says Trump administration attempts to punish him violate the First Amendment, separation of powers, due process, and more. https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/arizona-us-sen-mark-kelly-sues-hegseth-over-penalties-illegal-orders-video

- Can Bitcoin help amid internet blackouts after Iran’s currency collapsed 95% overnight? — CryptoSlate · 2026-01-13T10:17:04Z Iran's currency, the rial, has collapsed to around 1 million per US dollar, a record that spotlights how quickly savings can be wiped out when trust in money breaks. The currency lost nearly half its value across 2025, with official inflation reaching 42.5% i… https://cryptoslate.com/can-bitcoin-help-amid-internet-blackouts-as-irans-currency-collapses-95-overnight/

- Trump risks China trade war truce through Iran tariffs — Sky.com · 2026-01-13T08:58:00Z Sky's Asia correspondent says there are good reasons to expect retaliation from China, Iran's biggest trading partner, if Donald Trump targets that relationship. https://news.sky.com/story/trump-risks-end-of-china-trade-war-truce-through-iran-tariffs-13493636

- Avoiding the Resource Trap in Post-Maduro Venezuela — Econlib.org · 2026-01-13T11:00:55Z The recent removal of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela’s presidency is a dramatic development after more than two decades of socialist experimentation under Hugo Chávez and Maduro, characterized by expropriation, macroeconomic mismanagement, and political repres… https://www.econlib.org/econlog/avoiding-the-resource-trap-in-post-maduro-venezuela/

- NCS enforces global standards on courier DDP regime — The Punch · 2026-01-13T02:08:07Z The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has started a new Standard Operating Procedure for the courier DDP regime, enforcing global standards on operators.

Read More: https://punchng.com/ncs-enforces-global-standards-on-courier-ddp-regime/ https://punchng.com/ncs-enforces-global-standards-on-courier-ddp-regime/

- Ceremony to accredit Iranian ambassador in Áras postponed due to protests — Independent.ie · 2026-01-13T10:57:25Z The new Iranian ambassador to Ireland has been delayed from starting their duties due to the regime’s response to protests in Iran. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ceremony-to-accredit-iranian-ambassador-in-aras-postponed-due-to-protests/a940441811.html

- Trump’s tariff warning on Iran trade raises concerns for Indian rice exporters: IREF — BusinessLine · 2026-01-13T05:45:34Z US President Donald Trump's announcement imposing a 25 per cent tariff on any country continuing business ties with Iran is expected to intensify uncertainty across global trade channels, with India's agri-export sector, particularly rice exports, likely to f… https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/trumps-tariff-warning-on-iran-trade-raises-concerns-for-indian-rice-exporters-iref/article70504022.ece

- Vitol, Trafigura offer Venezuelan oil to Indian, Chinese refiners for March delivery, sources say — BusinessLine · 2026-01-13T05:28:43Z The trading firms are scrambling to secure ships, moving swiftly to sell the ​Venezuelan oil, with Trafigura's CEO saying it will load its first cargo ⁠for the US this week https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/vitol-trafigura-offer-venezuelan-oil-to-indian-chinese-refiners-for-march-delivery-sources-say/article70504045.ece

- 12 January 2026 - Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z No description https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2026/01/mil-260112-unbrief01.htm

- Ceremony to accredit Iranian ambassador in Áras postponed due to protests as 2,000 killed — Independent.ie · 2026-01-13T10:57:25Z The new Iranian ambassador to Ireland has been delayed from starting their duties due to the regime’s response to protests in Iran. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ceremony-to-accredit-iranian-ambassador-in-aras-postponed-due-to-protests-as-2000-killed/a940441811.html

- What are ‘shadow fleets,’ the mysterious tankers used to transport illicit oil? — Financial Post · 2026-01-13T11:00:46Z FP sheds light on shadow fleets — the mysterious tankers used to transport illicit oil — and why they are a problem. Find out more. https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/shadow-fleets-mysterious-tankers-transport-illicit-oil

- Heavy Crude, Heavy Consequences: Why Venezuela’s shock tests Canada’s oil economy — The Times of India · 2026-01-13T05:47:25Z A U.S. operation in Caracas and plans to assume control of Venezuela’s oil assets have revived heavy crude flows, posing a direct competitive threat to Canada. With U.S. refineries suited to Venezuelan grades, Canada risks losing market share, pressuring oil … https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/heavy-crude-heavy-consequences-why-venezuelas-shock-tests-canadas-oil-economy/articleshow/126497936.cms

- Trump announces tariffs on Iran trade partners as protest toll rises — Hurriyet Daily News · 2026-01-13T05:54:23Z U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, ramping up pressure as a rights group estimated a crackdown on protests has killed at least 648 people. https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/trump-announces-tariffs-on-iran-trade-partners-as-protest-toll-rises-217771

- We Are Coordinating with the Envoys of President Trump on the Schedule of Meetings - Our Documents Are, in Many Respects, Already Prepared for Signing - Address by the President — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z No description https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/ukraine/2026/01/ukraine-260112-ukraine-president01.htm

- Iranian Armed Forces 'fully prepared' to repel any aggression: FM spokesman — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z The Iranian Armed Forces, backed by the nation, are fully prepared to repel any act of aggression against the country, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/01/iran-260112-presstv08.htm

- UPPDATERAS: Postterminal och barnklinik bombade i Charkiv, fyra mördade – rysk flygreparationsbas bombad – Storbritannien förbereder prejning av ryska skuggflottan — Cornucopia.se · 2026-01-13T10:29:25Z Nova Posthas terminal i Charkiv och en klinik för barn bombades i natt och fyra personer mördades. En anläggning för att laga flygplan har bombats i ryska Taganrog i Rostov Oblast. BBC rapporterar att Storbritannien hittat juridiskt utrymme för att preja den … https://cornucopia.se/2026/01/uppdateras-postterminal-och-barnklinik-bombade-i-charkiv-fyra-mordade-rysk-flygreparationsbas-bombad-storbritannien-forbereder-prejning-av-ryska-skuggflottan/

- Oil prices gain on Iran supply disruption concerns — The Times of India · 2026-01-13T01:56:30Z Oil prices saw a slight increase as concerns over Iran's internal unrest and potential supply disruptions overshadowed anticipated crude supply from Venezuela. Heightened tensions with Iran, including potential U.S. military action and tariffs, are adding a g… https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/oil-prices-gain-on-iran-supply-disruption-concerns/articleshow/126495196.cms

- Manifestations en Iran : Donald Trump s'en prend aux partenaires commerciaux de Téhéran — L'Express · 2026-01-13T06:55:25Z Le président américain a annoncé des droits de douane de 25 % supplémentaires pour tout pays commerçant avec l’Iran. La Chine a réagi en dénonçant une "sanction unilatérale illicite". https://www.lexpress.fr/monde/manifestations-en-iran-donald-trump-sen-prend-aux-partenaires-commerciaux-de-teheran-TEDGWUQVGNEQLHPJ63UM5AGDUM/

- German Chancellor calls Iran's suppression of protests 'sign of weakness' urges more sanctions — Israelnationalnews.com · 2026-01-13T10:13:25Z German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is calling on Iran to stop killing protesters, threatening additional sanctions against the Islamic Republic."We call on the Iranian leadership to protect its population rather than threaten it. The regime’s violence against i… https://www.israelnationalnews.com/flashes/674286

- Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning's Regular Press Conference on January 12, 2026 — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:24:34Z No description https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/china/2026/01/china-260112-prc-mofab01.htm

- Press conference - Parliament House, Canberra — Globalsecurity.org · 2026-01-13T10:15:46Z No description https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/australia/2026/australia-260113-australia-pm01.htm

- Trump declares 25% tariff on Iran's trade partners as protest death toll rises — TheJournal.ie · 2026-01-13T07:06:06Z Iran’s main trading partners are China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. https://www.thejournal.ie/trump-iran-tariffs-6924929-Jan2026/

- En Iran, la révolution en cours est un espoir pour l’Europe — L'Express · 2026-01-13T11:00:00Z La fin du régime des mollahs serait une libération non seulement pour l’Iran et le Proche-Orient, mais aussi pour notre continent. https://www.lexpress.fr/monde/europe/en-iran-la-revolution-en-cours-est-un-espoir-pour-leurope-6WEGVRFIZRB4PIGVE2663IRKA4/

- India slips to third as major refiners tap the brakes on Russian crude — The Times of India · 2026-01-13T09:55:39Z In December 2025, India's reliance on Russian fossil fuels dwindled, positioning it as the third-largest purchaser in the market. Key players like Reliance Industries and state-run refineries slashed their crude oil acquisitions, while Turkiye surged ahead, c… https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-slips-to-third-as-major-refiners-tap-the-brakes-on-russian-crude/articleshow/126502143.cms

- US accuses Russia of 'dangerous and inexplicable escalation' of war in Ukraine as Trump seeks peace — ABC News · 2026-01-13T00:45:47Z The United States is accusing Russia of a “dangerous and inexplicable escalation” of the nearly four-year war in Ukraine at a time when the Trump administration is trying to advance negotiations toward peace https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-accuses-russia-dangerous-inexplicable-escalation-war-ukraine-129149728

- India falls to 3rd place in Russian fossil fuel imports — BusinessLine · 2026-01-13T09:55:29Z The total Russian hydrocarbon imports by India stood at 2.3 billion euros in December, down from 3.3 billion euros in the preceding month, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/india-falls-to-3rd-place-in-russian-fossil-fuel-imports/article70504826.ece

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Top OSINT signals

Sanctions · 2026-01-14
Avoiding the Resource Trap in Post-Maduro Venezuela
Econlib.org · 2026-01-13T11:00:55Z

The recent removal of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela’s presidency is a dramatic development after more than two decades of socialist experimentation under Hugo Chávez and Maduro, characterized by expropriation, macroeconomic mismanagement, and political repres…

What are ‘shadow fleets,’ the mysterious tankers used to transport illicit oil?
Financial Post · 2026-01-13T11:00:46Z

FP sheds light on shadow fleets — the mysterious tankers used to transport illicit oil — and why they are a problem. Find out more.

Military Intervention Will Not Liberate the Iranian People
The New Republic · 2026-01-13T11:00:00Z

Iran is once again at the center of a familiar and dangerous dynamic: mass protests met with lethal state repression at home, and escalating threats of U.S. military action from abroad. As security forces crack down on demonstrators across major cities, Presi…

En Iran, la révolution en cours est un espoir pour l’Europe
L'Express · 2026-01-13T11:00:00Z

La fin du régime des mollahs serait une libération non seulement pour l’Iran et le Proche-Orient, mais aussi pour notre continent.

Ceremony to accredit Iranian ambassador in Áras postponed due to protests
Independent.ie · 2026-01-13T10:57:25Z

The new Iranian ambassador to Ireland has been delayed from starting their duties due to the regime’s response to protests in Iran.

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