I. Executive Summary

• Sanctions on Russia: President Trump has endorsed a bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Russia, aimed at penalizing countries such as China and India that continue to purchase Russian energy. This move signals a potential escalation in U.S. economic measures against nations perceived to be undermining sanctions on Moscow.

• Venezuelan Oil Control: Following the abduction of Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. government has asserted that it will oversee Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely. This control raises significant questions regarding the future of Venezuela's economy and the potential for U.S. entities to benefit from oil revenues previously allocated to the Maduro regime.

• U.S. Naval Operations: The U.S. Coast Guard has successfully seized a Russian-linked oil tanker in the North Atlantic, marking a significant enforcement action against vessels involved in circumventing sanctions. This operation underscores the U.S. commitment to disrupting the flow of sanctioned oil.

• Iranian Protests: Economic turmoil in Iran has led to widespread protests, primarily driven by public frustration over high inflation and unemployment exacerbated by sanctions. The Iranian government faces increasing pressure as unrest spreads from commercial hubs to broader societal discontent.

• International Relations: Trump's recent diplomatic overtures towards Colombia, including an invitation to President Gustavo Petro, come after a period of aggressive rhetoric suggesting military intervention. This shift indicates a potential recalibration of U.S.-Colombian relations amidst ongoing regional instability.

• Withdrawal from International Organizations: The Trump administration's decision to withdraw from numerous UN and international organizations could have long-term implications for global governance and multilateral cooperation, particularly in areas related to climate change and international security.

• Impact on Global Oil Markets: The U.S. sanctions and military actions in Venezuela and against Russian oil exports are likely to create volatility in global oil markets. Countries reliant on Russian oil may seek alternative suppliers, potentially reshaping energy alliances and trade patterns.

• Monitoring Compliance: As the U.S. intensifies its sanctions regime, compliance monitoring will become increasingly critical. Financial institutions and corporations must be vigilant in their operations to avoid penalties associated with secondary sanctions, particularly in relation to Russian and Venezuelan oil transactions.

• Future of Sanctions Policy: The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that U.S. sanctions will become more aggressive and targeted. Stakeholders must prepare for a potential expansion of sanctions to include additional sectors and countries, reflecting a broader strategy to counteract perceived threats to U.S. interests.

- Risk Indicators: Key risk indicators include the potential for retaliatory measures from sanctioned nations, the stability of governments in regions affected by U.S. actions, and the resilience of global supply chains in the face of intensified sanctions. Monitoring these indicators will be essential for anticipating shifts in the geopolitical environment. # II. Quantitative Facts

- Date of Sanctions Bill Announcement: January 8, 2026 - Number of Venezuelan Oil Tankers Seized: 2 - Date of Tanker Seizure Operation: January 7, 2026 - Duration of Pursuit for Seized Tanker: Initiated on December 21, 2025 - Estimated Oil Volume on Seized Tanker: Approximately 100,000 tons - Number of Ukrainian Households Affected by Russian Strikes: Over 1 million - Date of Ukrainian Infrastructure Strikes: January 7, 2026 - Number of UN and International Organizations US Plans to Withdraw From: 66 - Date of US Withdrawal Announcement: January 8, 2026 - Projected Duration of US Oversight of Venezuelan Oil Revenue: Indefinite - Date of Trump's Statement on Venezuelan Oversight: January 8, 2026 - Countries Targeted by Proposed Sanctions for Buying Russian Oil: China and India - Date of Senator Lindsey Graham's Announcement on Sanctions: January 8, 2026 # III. Names, Entities, and Operational Facts

• Donald Trump: President of the United States, involved in sanction discussions against Russia and Venezuela.

• Lindsey Graham: U.S. Senator from South Carolina, reported to have stated that Trump has "greenlit" sanctions against Russia and supported sanctions on countries buying Russian oil.

• Gustavo Petro: President of Colombia, recently invited to the White House by Trump after a fluctuating diplomatic stance.

• Nicolás Maduro: President of Venezuela, recently abducted, leading to U.S. oversight of Venezuelan oil revenues.

• Ramzan Kadyrov: Leader of Chechnya, mentioned in the context of potential U.S. sanctions similar to those imposed on Maduro.

• Aryna Sabalenka: World No. 1 tennis player from Belarus, facing potential sanctions due to tournament scheduling conflicts.

• Marinera (formerly Bella 1): A vessel seized by U.S. Coast Guard, linked to transporting oil under sanctions.

• Eventin: A Russian tanker intercepted by U.S. authorities in the North Atlantic, part of a broader enforcement against sanctioned vessels.

• U.S. Coast Guard: Agency involved in the seizure of the Marinera and other vessels linked to Russian oil transport.

• U.S. European Command: Military command that provided support during the interception of the Marinera.

• Venezuelan Oil Industry: The sector is under U.S. control following Maduro's abduction, raising concerns about revenue distribution.

• China and India: Countries identified as potential targets for sanctions due to their purchases of Russian oil.

• U.S. sanctions enforcement agencies: Entities responsible for implementing and monitoring compliance with sanctions against individuals and nations.