I. Executive Summary

• Iranian Protests and U.S. Military Options: The U.S. administration is considering military options in response to ongoing protests in Iran, where the regime is facing significant internal dissent. President Trump has indicated that while negotiations with Iranian leaders are possible, immediate action may be necessary if the situation escalates further. This development raises the stakes for U.S.-Iran relations and could impact sanctions enforcement strategies.

• Venezuelan Oil Sales to Asia: Vitol and Trafigura are reportedly negotiating Venezuelan crude oil sales to Indian and Chinese refiners for March delivery. This move indicates a potential shift in market dynamics as U.S. sanctions on Venezuela continue to push the country to seek alternative buyers. The implications for global oil supply chains and pricing could be significant, particularly if these transactions circumvent U.S. sanctions.

• ExxonMobil's Position in Venezuela: President Trump has expressed a preference to exclude ExxonMobil from Venezuelan oil investments following skepticism from the company's CEO during a recent White House meeting. This decision could signal a broader strategy to limit U.S. corporate involvement in Venezuela, potentially affecting the operational landscape for other companies and influencing international investment flows.

• North Korea's Response to Sanctions Monitoring: North Korea has condemned a multilateral sanctions monitoring team, labeling its activities as illegal. This reaction underscores the regime's ongoing defiance against international sanctions and highlights the challenges of enforcing compliance among sanctioned states. The situation may lead to increased tensions and further sanctions discussions among UN member states.

• EU Sanctions Preparations Against U.S. Companies: The European Union is reportedly preparing sanctions against American companies if the U.S. does not retract its claims over Greenland. This potential escalation reflects growing transatlantic tensions and could have far-reaching implications for U.S. businesses operating in Europe, as well as for EU-U.S. relations.

• Illicit Crypto Activity Surge: Reports indicate that illicit cryptocurrency transactions reached a record $158 billion in 2025, highlighting a growing trend of state actors engaging in crypto crime. This trend poses significant challenges for sanctions enforcement, as the anonymity of digital currencies can facilitate the evasion of financial restrictions imposed on sanctioned entities.

• Stablecoins and Sanctions Evasion: The duality of stablecoins, particularly in the context of Venezuela and Iran, has emerged as a critical issue. While these digital assets provide a means for citizens to combat hyperinflation, they also enable sanctioned states to navigate financial restrictions. This complexity necessitates a reevaluation of regulatory frameworks surrounding digital currencies to prevent misuse.

• Crypto Crime and State Actors: The involvement of nation-states in organized crypto crime has increased, indicating a shift in how on-chain crime operates. This trend complicates the landscape for sanctions enforcement, as state actors may leverage cryptocurrencies to fund activities that undermine international norms and regulations.

• Global Sanctions Landscape: The evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly with respect to U.S.-China relations and sanctions against Russia, continues to shape the global sanctions environment. The interconnectedness of these issues necessitates a comprehensive approach to sanctions enforcement that considers the broader implications of economic policies and international relations.

- Implications for Financial Crime Executives: Financial crime executives must remain vigilant in monitoring developments related to sanctions and geopolitical tensions. The increasing complexity of illicit financial flows, particularly in the context of digital currencies and state-sponsored activities, requires enhanced due diligence and adaptive compliance strategies to mitigate risks associated with sanctions violations. # II. Quantitative Facts

- Date of Events: January 12, 2026 - Casualty Figures: Hundreds killed in Iran protests (exact number unspecified). - Illicit Crypto Activity: Estimated $158 billion in illegal crypto flows recorded in 2025. - Venezuelan Oil Sales: Discussions for March delivery of Venezuelan crude oil to Indian and Chinese refiners initiated by Vitol and Trafigura. - EU Sanctions Preparation: The European Union is preparing sanctions against American companies contingent on U.S. claims to Greenland. - Gas Storage Levels: German gas reserves reported at a historic low due to rapid depletion amid cold weather conditions. - Trump's Military Options: U.S. military considering "very strong options" regarding Iran, with no specific figures or timelines provided. - ExxonMobil's Status: President Trump indicated a preference to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela, following skepticism from the company's CEO. - North Korea's Response: North Korea condemned multilateral sanction monitoring activities but did not specify figures or details of the sanctions. # III. Names, Entities, and Operational Facts

• Donald Trump: President of the United States; involved in discussions regarding military options in Iran and sanctions against Venezuela.

• ExxonMobil: Major American oil company; under consideration for exclusion from Venezuelan operations due to executive skepticism about investment.

• Vitol: Global energy and commodities company; engaged in negotiations for Venezuelan crude oil sales to Indian and Chinese refiners.

• Trafigura: International commodity trading firm; collaborating with Vitol on Venezuelan oil sales.

• Nicolas Maduro: President of Venezuela; subject of U.S. sanctions and military discussions.

• Rodrigo Duterte: Former President of the Philippines; mentioned in context of U.S. military operations in Venezuela.

• North Korea: Country condemning multilateral sanctions monitoring; involved in ongoing sanctions discussions.

• Vincent Lemire: French historian; visa revoked by Israel, accused of anti-Zionism.

• Chainalysis: Blockchain analytics firm; reported on organized crypto crime and state actor involvement in illicit activities.

• Tether: Cryptocurrency; utilized in Venezuela and Iran, highlighting its dual use in sanctioned states and by citizens facing inflation.

• European Union: Preparing sanctions against U.S. companies related to claims over Greenland.

• U.S. Military: Considering "very strong options" regarding Iran amidst ongoing protests and unrest.

• Indian and Chinese Refineries: Target markets for Venezuelan crude oil sales facilitated by Vitol and Trafigura.

• TRM Labs: Blockchain analytics firm; reported record levels of illicit crypto activity in 2025.

• U.S. Treasury: Likely to be involved in sanction enforcement against entities operating in violation of U.S. policy in Venezuela and Iran.