I. Executive Summary

• Sanctions Landscape: The global sanctions environment is evolving rapidly, with significant implications for international trade and geopolitical stability. The emergence of a "shadow fleet" for oil transport, particularly involving sanctioned nations like Russia and Iran, has surged dramatically, complicating enforcement efforts. The fleet's growth from 97 vessels in 2022 to over 3,300 by the end of 2025 highlights the increasing sophistication of evasion tactics.

• U.S.-EU Relations: Tensions between the U.S. and Europe are escalating, particularly regarding trade and sanctions enforcement. The U.S. has issued stern warnings against European retaliation to proposed tariffs, indicating a potential for economic conflict that could disrupt transatlantic cooperation on sanctions.

• Middle Eastern Dynamics: Iran's economic struggles are intensifying as the regime consolidates power, further isolating the nation. The Iranian rial's devaluation to 1.4 million per dollar underscores the regime's fragility amid tightening sanctions. Concurrently, the U.S. is pushing for a reset in Venezuela's oil sector, aiming to reduce Russian and Chinese influence while reviving its own interests in the region.

• Eastern European Security: The geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe remains tense, with Ukraine and Poland expressing divergent views on regional security and sanctions against Russia. This discord may affect collective responses to Russian aggression and complicate NATO's strategic coherence.

• Energy Dependencies: The EU's increasing reliance on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) poses a strategic vulnerability, as nearly half of the bloc's gas supply is projected to come from the U.S. by 2030. This dependency could limit the EU's leverage in negotiations with Washington and complicate its energy security strategy.

• Syria's Oil Sector: The Syrian government's recent control over key oil fields from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) raises questions about the potential for increased oil production. However, the recovery of Syria's oil sector will face significant challenges, including ongoing conflict and international sanctions that may hinder foreign investment.

• Criminal Networks and Sanctions Evasion: The closure of the Tudou Guarantee scam marketplace indicates a direct impact of sanctions on illicit financial networks. This development reflects broader trends in how sanctions are reshaping the operational capabilities of criminal enterprises, necessitating adaptive strategies from enforcement agencies.

• Global Norms Under Strain: The rhetoric from Russian officials, particularly Foreign Minister Lavrov, suggests a growing disregard for established international norms, framing current geopolitical tensions as a "might makes right" scenario. This shift could embolden other nations to act unilaterally, further destabilizing the global order.

• Bilateral Military Cooperation: Discussions between Ukraine and Latvia on military cooperation signal a strengthening of defense ties in response to perceived threats from Russia. This cooperation may lead to enhanced military readiness and a more unified stance within the Baltic region.

• Political Unrest in Bulgaria: The resignation of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev amid criticism of government policies, particularly regarding Ukraine aid, reflects domestic instability that could influence Bulgaria's foreign policy and its alignment within the EU.

- Future Outlook: The interplay of sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and energy dependencies will likely shape the global landscape in the coming months. Stakeholders must remain vigilant to adapt to rapidly changing dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, European energy security, and Middle Eastern geopolitics. # II. Quantitative Facts

- Date of Report: January 20, 2026 - Shadow Fleet Growth: Increase from 97 vessels in 2022 to approximately 3,313 vessels by the end of 2025, representing a growth of 3,315%. - US LNG Supply: Expected to account for nearly 50% of the EU's gas supply by 2030. - Iranian Rial Exchange Rate: 1 US dollar equals 1.4 million Iranian rials as of early 2026. - Casualty Reports: Ongoing investigations by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into massacres in Darfur, with specific numbers not disclosed. - Oil Production Potential: Syrian government aims to revive oil production levels to pre-war status, though specific figures on current production levels are not provided. - Venezuela Oil Reserves: Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, with ongoing efforts to revitalize its oil sector post-Maduro's removal on January 3, 2026. - US Sanctions Impact: Closure of the Tudou Guarantee scam marketplace attributed to sanctions imposed by the US and UK, with no specific financial figures disclosed. - Bulgaria Political Changes: President Rumen Radev announced resignation amid political turmoil, with no specific dates for upcoming elections provided. - Military Cooperation Discussion: Meeting between Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defence and Latvia's Speaker on January 19, 2026, with no specific military aid figures mentioned. # III. Names, Entities, and Operational Facts

• Organizations:
• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish-led group controlling parts of northeastern Syria, recently lost key oil and gas fields to the Syrian government.
• Mol Nyrt.: Hungarian energy company acquiring a stake in Serbia's only oil refinery, potentially lifting U.S. sanctions on the operator.
• Gazprom Neft PJSC: Russian oil company involved in the deal with Mol for the Serbian refinery.
• Tudou Guarantee: Notorious online marketplace for fraud that has reportedly shut down its Telegram operations due to sanctions.

• Individuals:
• Sergey Lavrov: Russian Foreign Minister, commented on the erosion of international law.
• Rumen Radev: Bulgarian President who announced his resignation amid political turmoil.
• Sergiy Boyev: Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, engaged in discussions with Latvian officials regarding military cooperation.
• Daiga Mieriņa: Speaker of the Latvian Saeima, involved in military discussions with Ukraine.

• Vessels:
• Shadow Fleet: A growing number of oil tankers circumventing sanctions, increasing from 97 vessels in 2022 to approximately 3,313 by the end of 2025.

• Banks and Financial Entities:
• U.S. Treasury Department: Issued warnings regarding European responses to U.S. trade policies, specifically related to sanctions and tariffs.

• Countries:
• Iran: Facing severe economic challenges, with the regime's grip on the economy tightening amid international sanctions.
• Venezuela: Undergoing a significant reset in its oil sector, with U.S. efforts to reshape PDVSA and investment rules.

• Legislation:
• Sanctions and Money Laundering Act 2018: Relevant to the operational context of maritime trade and sanctions enforcement.